Red Train Blog

It has finally happened. After nearly a century of loyal service, the voters of Gorton and Denton have done the unthinkable and stopped voting Labour. For the first time in almost 100 years the area will not be represented by a Labour MP.

The shock in Westminster has been palpable. Somewhere in a Westminster office a PowerPoint slide titled “Why Are Voters So Ungrateful?” is being updated as we speak.

The winner, of course, was the Green Party. Which is awkward because the Labour strategy for the by-election had been carefully designed around the possibility that Reform might win. Their campaign message was essentially: Vote Labour or Nigel Farage will personally install a border checkpoint in your front garden.

A threat aimed at vulnerable minorities

The problem with this approach is that it only works if Reform actually wins. When they don’t, Labour is left holding a campaign leaflet that reads like a threat aimed at vulnerable minorities.

For the last few years Labour’s core electoral philosophy has been beautifully simple: we are not those awful people. This is apparently considered a sufficient governing programme. You may not like us, the pitch goes, but imagine how bad the other lot are.

Becoming those awful people

Unfortunately, Labour has also spent much of its time trying to become those awful people to stop them winning. The logic appears to be that if you sound enough like Reform, voters will choose the original rather than the tribute act because of public services (which are still shit nearly two years into a Labour government).

Which is a bold strategy. Like opening a vegan steakhouse next to an actual steakhouse and hoping the carnivores can be guilted into making the right choice.

Right on cue, the day after the Greens won the by-election, Labour unveiled new restrictions on asylum seekers, limiting how long people can stay in the country and creating fresh layers of uncertainty and misery for vulnerable families. The reasoning seems to be that if you treat migrants harshly enough, Reform voters will suddenly think: finally, a compassionate government we can trust.

Meeting people where they are

What this does is make Reform’s arguments look more credible while simultaneously annoying people on the left who already feel like Labour would rather they quietly evaporate.

Now imagine, just for a moment, that Reform had won the by-election instead of the Greens. Labour politicians would immediately be on television saying things like: “We need to meet people where they are.” “These are legitimate concerns.” “White working-class communities feel left behind.”

There would be long, solemn statements about listening to voters and respecting their feelings.

A different response

When the Greens win? Suddenly the voters are irresponsible extremists. Apparently, the result can only be explained by religious sectarianism, radical left activism, or possibly Russian interference. Give it a few hours and someone will probably blame oat milk.

If this sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve seen the opposite treatment before. During the Jeremy Corbyn years, outlets like LabourList were forever saying how completely damning byelection defeats were and urging a change of direction to meet voters where they are.

The two faces of LabourList

LabourList wrote on the day after the Gorton and Denton result was announced: “Now, obviously, this result is not what any of those people [who worked on the campaign] wanted. But that energy, that working together rather than fighting each other may well be a key part of turning around Labour's fortunes going forward.”

They would never have written anything like this following a Corbyn loss. No noble defeat. No good effort in difficult circumstances. Just Labour has lost its way and needs radical change. LabourList went on to say:

“If we simply make this a chance to attack the leadership and revive internal fights, we might lose something very precious and very fragile that Labour members started to rebuild on those doorsteps.”

Much worse situation

Again, nothing like this was said during the low points of Corbyn’s leadership and things look much worse for Labour now, caught between Greens, Lib Dems, SNP, Tories and Reform, which could lead to Labour handing over to Nigel Farage. It’s also more damning because Labour is in power and can actually do things to make voters’ lives better. However, their popularity is still plummeting.

The difference, of course, is that Jeremy Corbyn was widely treated as an outsider who had somehow wandered into the Labour leadership by mistake, like a confused man who had entered the wrong wedding reception. Keir Starmer, by contrast, is considered properly Labour. Even while pursuing Reform voters with the enthusiasm of a man chasing a bus he’s not entirely sure he wants to catch.

Blair!

This is partly the legacy of the Blair years, which rewired the party’s internal culture so that the centre is considered responsible adulthood and the left is considered a sort of embarrassing relative who keeps mentioning wealth taxes at Christmas.

The result is that many left-wing Labour voters have simply left. The Gorton and Denton result suggests where some of them have gone.

Dangerous radicals

To be clear, when we say “left-wing voters” we are talking about a terrifying group of extremists who believe radical things like: the rich should maybe pay a bit more tax; trans people are human beings who deserve respect; Palestinians might reasonably feel slightly aggrieved about their homes being destroyed; and launching wars with Iran for vibes alone might not be a brilliant idea.

These people, dangerous radicals that they are, have heard the message loud and clear. Labour does not particularly want them.

So, they are voting Green and judging by Labour’s reaction to the result, they are not being invited back any time soon.