Kemi Badenoch will take the Tories to the right, which might be bad news for Labour
Well, well, well. After what feels like three centuries of musical chairs at Conservative HQ, the Tories have a new leader, and it’s none other than Kemi Badenoch. She’s stepping up to take on a task so unappealing it makes cleaning a festival porta-loo seem like a cushy gig: rescuing the party after a drubbing at the general election; and by "rescuing," I mean attempting to herd a party that’s simultaneously being gnawed at by Labour on one side, the Lib Dems on the other, and Reform snapping like a rabid terrier at its ankles.
Let’s be clear: Badenoch’s victory isn’t the result of a party engaged in a serious bout of post-defeat retrospection. Labour is gleefully occupying what used to be the Tories’ centre/centre-right turf, and Nigel Farage’s gang of merry contrarians are making serious overtures to the disillusioned right. Badenoch’s job is like being told to reassemble IKEA furniture after a herd of wildebeest has trampled through it, only to find the manual has been replaced by The Daily Telegraph’s culture war section.
Labour, meanwhile, is breathing a sigh of relief. Their worst nightmare wasn’t Badenoch; it was Robert Jenrick. Yes, that guy. No, I couldn’t pick him out of a line up either. Jenrick was the man who looked ready to try something radical: apologising for the mess, admitting mistakes, and pivoting back to the centre. Jenrick, to some, represented the chance for a more palatable, less shouty Tory brand. However, the party faithful decided they hadn’t gone far enough to the right, and Badenoch rode that sentiment all the way to the top.
Looking competent
This logic, baffling to most outside the Conservative echo chamber, is music to Labour ears. “Perfect,” they say, dusting off their 1997 playbook. “You go off and yell about ‘woke’ biscuits and declining birth rates while we get on with the serious business of governance, economic growth, and seducing sensible centrists.” Labour’s plan is to focus on looking calm, competent, and electable, because, as the centrists will tell you, "competence" is what wins elections.
That’s the narrative, anyway: a rerun of the Tories’ wilderness years post-1997. However, if Labour thinks this is a done deal, they might want to consider the unpredictability of politics for the last ten years. Labour assumes the Tories are doomed to repeat their post-1997 trajectory: splinter, squabble, and fade into irrelevance while the grown-ups in red get on with running the country. However, they might be underestimating the resilience of the right.
The key issue is immigration
Here’s the thing about centrist voters: they’re not as allergic to right-wing politics as some might hope. Immigration, for instance, remains a hot-button issue, and Badenoch knows it. Under Rishi Sunak, the Tories lost their edge on immigration, leaving swing voters disillusioned. If Badenoch makes immigration her rallying cry - and let’s be honest, she will - she could claw back support, even from those sensible centrists Labour is banking on.
Let’s not forget, plenty of people voted for Brexit in 2016 not because they thought it was sensible, but because it wasn’t. It was an anti-establishment cry, a collective “shove it” to the status quo. Labour, now looking increasingly like the establishment, risks underestimating how seductive Badenoch’s brand of cultural combativeness could be. There’s a reason Farage still commands attention at the bar of British politics.
Many swing voters defected to Labour not out of love for Sir Keir Starmer’s charming pragmatism, but simply to register dissatisfaction. If Badenoch can recapture their faith on immigration, it’s not inconceivable she could claw back a significant chunk of those swing voters.
Bellicose right-wing culture war rhetoric
This is where things get worrying. By dragging immigration and other far-right issues into the mainstream, Badenoch won’t just energise her base; she’ll legitimise Reform in ways that could seriously hurt Labour. Expect the Tories and Reform to start nibbling away at Labour’s flanks, particularly if Starmer’s government stumbles on delivering economic growth or keeping immigration numbers down.
Labour might console themselves with the thought that Badenoch’s bellicose right-wing culture war rhetoric will alienate sensible centrists, but they should remember how fluid the electorate is. Plenty of people oscillate between Labour, Lib Dems, Tories, and even Reform depending on the cultural winds. Badenoch doesn’t need to win everyone over; she just needs enough disaffected centrists who’d rather gripe about immigration than cheer for a competent but uninspiring Labour government.
I could end up eating my hat
Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe in five years, I’ll be eating my hat as Starmer coasts to a second term, having delivered a respectable 2% economic growth and convinced everyone that Badenoch is a swivel-eyed weirdo best left to the fringes. I’d toast to that with a pint of hoppy craft beer and a smug grin given the chance.
Labour would be foolish to bet the house on that. Badenoch’s victory could signal a new wave of right-wing populism that Labour is dangerously unprepared to counter. The Conservatives are down, but they’re far from out. Brace yourselves, Britain, the political turmoil isn’t over yet.
