What can the left learn from Biden’s victory?

Finally, some good news. Donald Trump is on his way out of the White House. He may not admit it, he may be incapable of accepting that he lost, but this particular circus is nearly over. Trump will be a one term President.  

It's unequivocally a good thing that Joe Biden Beat Trump in last Tuesday’s election. A second Trump term would likely have been worse than the first, more corrupt and more incompetent. It’s difficult to put into words how glad I am that the world doesn’t have to worry about the President starting a nuclear war to settle a Twitter beef.

Joy tempered by disappointment

There is a caveat to my joy, which is that the Democrats should have easily won this election. Trump received more than 72 million votes, which is way too many for a man who left the economy in ruins, allowed the coronavirus to run rampant and is a compulsively lying, authoritarian who doesn’t respect himself, the office of the President or even soldiers who have died for America. The Democrats should have been able to beat Trump in their sleep. Not by less than 4% of the vote.

Of course a win is a win, but the numbers are more than just to boost Joe Biden’s ego. This was not a repudiation of Trump. There was no blue wave and Trumpism is very much alive, even if Trump is on his way out. Downballot, the Democrats did poorly, they failed to take back the Senate and lost seats in the House, narrowing their majority.

What can the left learn from this?

What can the left worldwide learn from this election? The American election doesn’t offer a solution to the left’s post 2008 financial crash identity crisis. Yes, a centrist, establishment left-wing politician won, but he was up against an unpopular incumbent and it was after a summer of radical-left activism that fired voters up for change, or at least dumping Trump. The closeness of the election could also be read as many voters being lukewarm towards a President who will be dependent on radical left Congressional Representatives to pass legislation. 

One clear lesson is that simply being competent and sensible isn’t enough to win, even when faced with a clownishly incompetent opponent, so take note Keir Starmer. Biden is the very measure of a moderate, sensible, experienced, competent politician and he only narrowly beat a deranged serial fraudster whose administration has been a giant dumpster fire and let a deadly virus rip through the country whilst ruining the economy. Clearly values and issues of identity are more important to many voters than even extreme incompetence. 

Another crucial lesson for the left in Britain is that many Americans don’t blame Trump for the spread of the coronavirus, which is likely the same for the Tories in the UK. People view this as a natural disaster (or the fault of China) and not a matter of effective government. There’s evidence that Trump handled the virus badly, worse than a lot of other countries, but many voters aren’t considering different countries’ relative performance in handling the virus. They just see lots of countries with lots of cases and think: “everyone has it bad so it’s no one’s fault”.

The left needs to win more than the centre

Enthusiastic talk about a blue wave or a Biden landslide turned out to be overconfident bluster. In some of the key states, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin, Biden won by less than 1% of the vote. This tells us that being in the centre isn’t a sure path to victory, even when faced by an opponent of (or at least supported by) the extreme right.

Biden won the majority of registered Independents and Independents made up a bigger proportion of the electorate than in 2016. Biden also won the key swing voter groups of white college educated women, suburban voters and white working-class voters. However, Trump was able to turn out his base and loyalist Republicans, which was nearly enough to see him to victory. Winning the middle helped Biden, but whilst populists like Trump are finding new supporters on the right, the left needs to think about more than just winning the centre.

Biden’s success with swing voters has carried him to the White House, but it didn’t translate into support for downballot Democrats. The Democrats failure to take the Senate will most likely result in four years of Republican stonewalling to make Biden look ineffective, so that an establishment Republican can win in 2024. Any talk of a new age of moderation and compromise, when the Republican Party is led by Mitch McConnell, is only hot air.

A Democratic vision for America 

The Democrats should have done better than they did. They chose a gaffe prone, dull candidate and failed to express a coherent vision of how the country would be different under their leadership. The fact that the coronavirus prevented a lot of campaigning played to their favour as the less the country saw of Biden, the better.

I am not saying that the Democrats have to move further to the left to win. The policies I support in Britain would be considered extremely left-wing in America (policies like not letting corporations trample all over politics and people not having to pay for healthcare) and I recognise that America has different politics. The Democrats need a vision that can transcend left and right politics, instead of sitting in the middle. They shouldn’t rely on “we’re less corrupt, stupid and incompetent than the other guys so you have to vote for us.”

The appeal of Trump

Trump surprised us all by winning over more Latino and black voters that anticipated. The tactic of calling him a racist and then expecting everyone not appalled by racism to vote against him didn’t work. Trump is a racist, but he didn’t divide the electorate along racial lines. The left needs to realise that the appeal of populists, like Trump, clearly goes beyond just a sense of white grievance at changing demographics and the anger of the “left behind”. 

Trump’s appeal is rooted in anti-establishment, anti-elitist and anti-liberal right-wing populism. However, he also has a message that it’s okay to feel good about American history and that you don’t need to worry about racism or sexism, as long as you’re not saying the N word or hitting women.

Trump’s message is that those who think racism and sexism are more complicated than the above are at best whipping up a lot of fuss about nothing and at worst are planning a Mao Zedong style Cultural Revolution with violent public denouncements. This message appeals to more than just white, blue collar voters. Some minorities want to hear it too, which should concern the left.

Difficult problems in the future

The Democrat’s policies on healthcare are more popular than they are as a party. Just as Labour’s policies on tax and redistribution are more popular than they are in the UK. It seems voters want left-wing policies, but not left-wing governments. The left needs to ask itself: what is stopping us from winning if we have popular policies that the voters want? I don’t have an answer to this and whatever the answer is it won’t be simple or easy. 

Trump will be out of the White House before the Super Bowl, but it’s not all bread and roses for the left in America. There’s little hope of resolving the left’s identity crisis and no clear path forward for the 2022 midterms, where it’s essential that the Democrats take the Senate and hold onto their majority in the House.

Even if Trump quietly disappears (which I very much doubt he will) the threat of Trumpism remains and this election has left the ground fertile for a less incompetent aspiring extreme-right authoritarian, whereas it was supposed to be the destruction of the populist right and the restoration of liberal democracy in America.

When thinking about our fight against the populist right I’m left to conclude that Trumps’ defeat is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

"Joe Biden" by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0