Four years ago I was confident that Hillary Clinton would easily beat Donald Trump, so it’s with some trepidation that I start this blog post by saying that the polls are looking good for Joe Biden in the election this November. 

Election website 538 forecasts a Biden win in 87 of the 100 scenarios they projected (at time of writing). The predictions of a Democratic victory could be wrong and Trump has come from behind to beat the odds in the past, but the smart money is certainly on Biden and he could possibly win a huge landslide.

There is the very real possibility of Trump refusing to acknowledge his defeat and sitting in the White House like the blockage in the drain of democracy that he is. If that happens it will be the most unprecedented thing that has happened in this whole unprecedented Presidency. 

I think Trump will leave office if he loses. Probably not without a fair amount of grumbling on Twitter. He will most likely go when, after losing them the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, the Republican Party finally grows a spine and cuts him loose. The more important question is: what happens to Trumpism after Trump? Will it die with his political career? Will someone else emerge to be the standard bearer for bloviating hate in American politics?

Trumpism beyond Trump

Trumpism won’t end with Trump. Trump satisfied a need that a group of American voters want. This may be a minority of voters, and if Biden really wallops Trump then we’ll find out exactly what the floor in Trump’s support is, however, the itch in American politics that Trump scratches won’t go away if Trump loses.

What some voters want, and what Trump stands for, is America’s naked self-interest, free from constraint by any other principle. Trump is purely transactional; he sees the world through the prism of what benefits him (which is why he doesn’t understand military service despite claiming to be a patriot) and he appeals to voters who see politics the same way. The “ask not what you can do for your country, but what your country can do for you” voters.

America First

This is summed up by Trump’s adoption of the (antisemitic in origin) slogan: America First. Trump supporters want America First. They don’t care about America’s allies or the values that America is supposed to represent around the world. They don’t have vainglorious ideas about America being the world’s policeman or the exporter of free-market capitalism, which makes them different from how many establishment Republican politicians see America. They want what benefits America (and themselves) within the country.

They don’t want to apologise for America or to compromise for America. They see the world as everyone vs America and make no distinction between fellow democracies, America’s close allies or authoritarian dictatorships. They see all countries as equal before the question of: what have you done for America recently? Many voters see politicians in these terms and Trump is the perfect candidate for them.

Bellicose politics

Trump is also rude about his enemies. He isn’t restrained about what he says or holds back in any way, especially when laying into someone he (and his supporters) doesn’t like. This is another itch that Trump scratches. During the Cold War American conservatives had the perfect enemy they could loudly denounce: communism. Communism was the ultimate anti-America and conservatives could be as loud as they want in demonising it.

Since the end of the Cold War, conservatives have wanted an enemy they can be loud about hating. The politics of globalisation and international cooperation of the 1990s didn’t provide this. Islamic terrorism in the 2000s was a partial substitute for communism, but it didn’t provide the need for an enemy inside America working to bring down the country that communism provided. Islamic terrorism is mainly something that happens far away from America (barring one notable and high-profile exception) and therefore doesn’t exist to many Americans.

Trump’s endless bellicose crusade against liberals, mainstream conservatives (mainstream by American standards, or terrifyingly right wing by everyone else’s standards) BLM, antifa, the media and anyone else who has been mildly critical of Trump’s massive corruption and defaming of the highest office in America, meets the need for conservative voters who want an enemy they can hate and indulge in violent fantasies about defending their local grocery store from.

Blue collar social conservatives

Trump also provides a rallying point for blue collar social conservatives. This is odd as Trump is in many ways the opposite of a socially conservative blue collar voter. Sure, he hates immigrants, liberals and people who went to college, and he isn’t afraid to say so in un-PC ways, but in many other ways he is the opposite of blue collar socially conservative values.

Trump has no time for faith (he claims to be religious, but clearly doesn’t believe there is a power higher than himself), he has no self-denial (Trump has never held back on indulging himself), he is an affront to the traditional family (Trump is a serial cheater and serial divorcee) and he doesn’t believe in service to the community (Trump has never done anything that doesn’t benefit him personally immediately).

These blue collar socially conservative values are at odds with liberal metropolitan America’s values of self-expression and self-actualisation. Trump certainly believes in pursuing his own self-actualisation and pretty much insults every blue collar socially conservative value, but he still provides a rallying point for people with those values. By saying you support Trump, you are able to make a bold statement about your politics, which is another need in American politics that he satisfies: being the visible symbol for a group of people with certain values.

The culture war isn’t going away

This stark divide in values between many Americans has led to a culture war between liberal and conservative Americans, which shows no sign of ending even if Trump loses big time. Not all conservatives are Trump supporters, but Trump does provide some things that many conservatives want: America First, being aggressive towards conservative America’s enemies and being the symbol of blue collar America - at least until Google invents a self-driving, Confederate flag flying, country music blasting pickup truck that is legally allowed to stand for office.

Yelling “America First” and being rude about his enemies is key to Trump’s success. He may have gotten into the White House because people disliked Hilary Clinton more than they disliked him and he may get kicked out of the White House because more people dislike Trump more than they dislike Biden, however, Trump got the Republican nomination because he gave conservatives what they wanted.

Another politician will emerge to provide these things, whatever happens to Trump in November. This may be a politician who is less of an unhinged, impulsive, stupid, megalomanic than Trump and thus might be a lot more effective at rallying their support against the restrictions that the American constitution places on the power of the presidency, which is something we should all be worried about. If Trump is Barry Goldwater to someone else’s Ronald Regan, then we should all fear that someone else.

All this means that the era of Trump’s politics isn’t over, even if Biden wins in a landslide.

Donald Trump picture taken by Gage Skidmore and used under creative commons.